Racial disparity in federal pretrial detention recommendations: Trends over two decades and association with risk assessment implementation (2024)
Research Summary
This study examines trends in racial disparities in federal pretrial detention recommendations from 2004 to 2024 and explores the association between these trends and the implementation of the Pretrial Risk Assessment (PTRA) tool. Using data from over 650,000 cases involving non-Hispanic Black and White defendants, we find that racial disparities in officers’ detention recommendations decreased substantially—by an estimated 75 percent—over the two-decade period. Interrupted Time Series Analyses (ITSA) indicate that the 2011 milestone, when PTRA completion before hearings surpassed 50 percent system-wide, was associated with a significant immediate drop and accelerated decrease in disparity. No additional significant changes were observed following the 2014 policy that integrated PTRA into officers’ workload reporting. Supplemental analyses confirm the robustness of these findings. While causality cannot be inferred, results suggest that implementation of the PTRA may have contributed to reductions in racial disparities by structuring officers’ decision-making. These findings offer an empirical counterpoint to concerns that risk assessment tools necessarily exacerbate racial inequity and underscore the importance of data-informed policy in pretrial reform.
Link to Article: https://www.uscourts.gov/sites/default/files/document/88_2_4.pdf